Experiences · 2 min read
What Actually Predicts Medical School Acceptance? What National Studies Show
Two national studies — one of 153,664 applicants, one of 2.18 million applications — show which experiences are linked to acceptance after accounting for grades — and what the numbers can't tell you.
Most advice about pre-med experiences comes from people who got in, describing what they did. That tells you what is common, not what matters. Two large national studies get closer, because they compare applicants who were accepted with those who weren't after accounting for GPA, MCAT and background.
What the studies found
A study of 153,664 first-time U.S. MD applicants, 2017–2020 found that, with grades, scores and background held equal, applicants who had shadowed had 1.57 times the odds of acceptance of those who hadn't, and applicants with more community service had 1.47 times the odds (Perez et al., BMC Medical Education, 2023).
A second study, of 2.18 million applications to 146 U.S. MD schools, 2018–2020, looked at individual school decisions. Meaningful leadership, non-clinical volunteering, research, paid clinical work and clinical volunteering were each linked to higher odds of acceptance after adjustment. The strongest single factor in the whole model wasn't an experience at all: applying to a school in your own state (Grbic et al., Academic Medicine, 2023).
What "linked to higher odds" does not mean
These are associations, not guarantees. They don't say that adding shadowing raises your chances by a fixed amount, and an odds ratio is not a percentage increase. People who shadow may differ in other ways the studies couldn't measure. What the findings do support is simpler: each of these areas is worth looking at on its own, rather than letting one strength stand in for another.
One finding is a useful warning about simple comparisons. In the first study, medical employment looked like a disadvantage in a raw comparison and an advantage once grades and background were accounted for. Accepted-versus-rejected tables that don't adjust for anything can point the wrong way.
What's common among students who got in
The AAMC's survey of entering medical students gives the other half of the picture. In 2025, 95.5% of the 14,900 who answered had shadowed a physician or other health professional. Health-care volunteering and non-health-care volunteering were each reported by close to nine in ten. Much less common: an MCAT prep course (about a third) and international volunteering (about one in five).
That last point matters for planning. A costly trip abroad or a paid course is not something most entering students did, so neither should be a default.
What to take from this
- Look at clinical work, service, shadowing and leadership separately. Strength in one doesn't cover a gap in another.
- Doing research and publishing are different things. No national study here shows a publication is required.
- A job you need isn't a weakness. In the first study, non-medical employment showed no clear link either way.
- Where you apply matters as much as what you did.
The free AesculaMD diagnostic reads where you stand in each of these areas separately, from what you've actually done.